Meet Joe Biden, Delaware’s famous Senator

This is the first in a series of posts about the Vice-Presidential debate this Thursday. We’ll be there at 8:45 PM ET at the online channel. Tonight: Joe Biden.

Both vice-presidential choices this year were a bit of a surprise, and the first surprise was Obama naming his former rival for the Democratic nomination. Biden’s campaign never gained traction, and he dropped out after receiving less than 1% of the vote in the Iowa caucus.

Biden has said some incredibly stupid things in the time since then – in this Meet the Press interview (starts at 2:00 in), he manages to give stupid answers on offshore drilling that disagree with both his Party’s platform and basic logic. But he is an extremely well-respected member of the Senate, and the Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Here are some of the bills he has sponsored.

Why did Obama choose Biden as Vice Presidential candidate?

• As you may have heard 3,487 times during Obamarama (the Democratic National Convention), Biden is from the swingstate city of Scranton, Pennsylvania. Obama is hoping that Biden’s background coming from a working-class Pennsylvania family will help carry Pennsylvania.
• One of the biggest worries about Obama during the primaries was his lack of foreign policy experience (remember Clinton’s “red phone” ad?). Biden, as one of the most respected foreign policy experts in the Senate, will help reassure voters about foreign policy.

So what can we expect out of Biden in a debate? The most famous moment in Joe Biden’s President-running career took place during a debate. During Biden’s 1988 Presidential campaign, at an appearance at the Iowa State Fair, he famously plagiarized a speech from British politician Neil Kinnock (not to be confused with Nile Kinnick).

Kinnock: Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to a University … was it because all our predecessors were thick, those people who could work eight hours underground and then come up to play football?

Biden: I started thinking as I was coming over here, why is it that Joe Biden’s the first in his family ever to go to University … is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright… who worked in the coal mines of Northeast Pennsylvania and would come up after 12 hours and play football?

Biden claimed that he simply forgot to properly credit Kinnock in the speech – and supporting this is the fact that Biden had given the speech before, crediting Kinnock then. So, you know, Believe Him or Not. Personally, I’m inclined to given Biden the benefit of the doubt, if only because I can’t imagine a politician being stupid or arrogant enough to actually think he could get away with it.

Don’t look for any more plagiarism Thursday – I expect that it’s nearly impossible in the YouTube age. But do look for Biden’s famous wit. He had one of the best lines of the 2008 campaign, describing Rudy Giuliani’s speeches as “a noun, a verb, and 9/11.” Tuning in to see what Biden might say will be one of the fun things about Thursday’s debate.

Breaking opinion: bailout fails in House, stocks decrease slightly, everyone please chill

The biggest news of the day is that the financial bailout bill failed on the House floor today, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 777 points. One phrase you will hear a lot over the next couple days is “biggest one-day drop in history.” That’s true, but not helpful. The stock market lost “only” 6.8% of its value today, but it was nowhere near the worst drop in history. For example, on the “Black Monday” drop on October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points – losing nealry 22% of its value.

So, it should now be clear to everyone – even Phil Gramm – that there is a real recession going on in this country. But please, don’t panic. That will just make everything worse. Let’s see whether Congress and President Bush can come up with another compromise, or even if another compromise will prove to be necessary.

As for the 2008 Presidential campaign, it clearly benefits Obama, but I don’t think this will have too great an effect, since both McCain and Obama supported the deal. Most voters think Obama would do a better job of handling the economy, and that is likely in part responsible for his recent upswing in poll numbers. Obama is now up by 4 points in the Meaningless Popular vote (MPV) polls, and significantly ahead in the all-important electoral vote polls.

Live tonight!

Tonight at 8:45 PM ET, we’ll be live on the air for the first time. The plan is thus:

• 8:45-9:00 PM ET: Live on the air at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/voters-broadcasting
• 9:00 PM ET – whenever: During the debate, follow live on the Twitter feed at http://twitter.com/agoodvoter
• After the debate, for about 15-20 minutes, we’ll be back on the air for a wrap-up

Hope to see you soon!

Posting bail(out)

No more word about the debate, so we’re still not sure if it will be happening Friday night. But regardless, we will be here at 8:45 ET Friday night, to provide a preview of the debate or non-debate, as the case may be. See you then!

The biggest news of the day is the continuing saga of negotiations between Congressional leaders and President Bush about the $700 billion bailout. The principles agreed on are an installment plan that will provide $250 billion now with the rest potentially available later. Read about it on CNN, Fox News, Time, the BBC, or The Economist. 

The plan is moving along, slowly, with opposition from both conservativves and progressives. What shocks me about the move is that our supposedly-conservative current President has proposed a government intervention in private enterprise that costs nearly as much as the entire Iraq war. This point has not been lost on free-market capitalists or progressive community organizers (gràcies a Arnau for the link).

Meanwhile, McCain has rushed back to Washington to take immediate action to help the economy. The problem, as the votemaster from electoral-vote.com points out, is that there is nothing McCain can do right now. Any legislation must begin in the Senate Banking Committee, chaired by Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and ranking membered by Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL). McCain is not on the committee; he won’t get an opportunity to contribute to the debate until the bill reaches the Senate floor, which will likely be sometime next week. Meanwhile, 75% of Americans want the debate to go on. This continues to seem like a huge strategic mistake for McCain.

It may be too early for reaction to show up in the polls, but Obama continues to maintain a solid lead. Currently, Obama is ahead in the Electoral Vote 286-252. Here is the map (as always, I’m deliberately not using red and blue – McCain is orange and Obama is green):

 

Election map as of September 25th

Changes to note since two days ago:

• Montana’s color has switched from medium orange to deep orange
• Maine’s and Colorado’s colors have switched from light green to medium green
• Ohio’s colorhas switched from an exact tie to light orange
• New Hampshire’s color has switched from light orange to light green (a pickup for Obama), but is still too close to tell for sure.

What will happen to Friday night’s debate? Remember that in baseball, if the orange team doesn’t show up, the green team wins by forfeit. Stay tuned!

Breaking opinion: McCain suspends campaign and wants to delay the debate?!?!?!

I just got home from work and heard the news that John McCain has suspended his campaign and has asked the Obama campaign to suspend Friday night’s debate. Here is the CNN.com story, and the video of McCain’s announcement. Here is the video of Obama’s counter-announcement.

My immediate breaking opinion: What? The?

I see what McCain is doing here – he wants to be seen as putting America first, and setting aside his desire to become President to address America’s needs. McCain might be advancing this message by suspending his campaign, but he’s making a huge, Tyrannosaurus-sized mistake by asking the debate to be postponed. This is a mistake from the perspective of McCain’s strategy, and should be a major disappointment to voters. It’s a strategic mistake because this is a foreign policy debate, and foreign policy is McCain’s strong point. As I mentioned in my last post, having a debate about foreign policy will allow McCain to change the subject away from the economy, and seize control of the conversation again.

McCain’s request is a disappointment to voters too. In Obama’s response, he makes a glaringly obvious point – a point that occurred to me even before I saw Obama’s response. Right now, during this financial crisis, this is exactly the time voters will want to hear from the people who want to be their next President! Both McCain and Obama have a real opportunity to show leadership and tell American voters like you and me what they will do about this financial crisis. If McCain really backs out of the debate two days before, he’s missing this opportunity.

Let’s hope there is a debate Friday night. If there is, we’ll be here at 8:45 ET to cover it.

The polls – Obama is back on top, but can he stay?

With the first presidential debate coming this Friday night at 9 PM Eastern time, the 2008 election is entering the home stretch. Voters Broadcasting will be covering the debate live, with a video preview at 8:45 PM ET followed by real-time Twitter coverage. On Friday, we’ll preview what to expect in the debate.

The topic of the debate is foreign policy and national security. With that as the topic, John McCain will likely gain one or two states in the electoral vote just by showing up. If that happens, it will continue the last two months of seesawing in the electoral vote polling. (We’re using the electoral vote polling because, as we learned in 2000, only the electoral vote matters in choosing the president.)

This was what the electoral vote polling looked like on July 16th:

Electoral vote poll on July 16th

(A note on the color scheme: I hate the red = Republican / blue = Democrat colors for a variety of reasons that I’ll blog about soon. Orange means McCain and green means Obama. Darker shades mean stronger votes for the given candidate.)

Obama had a solid lead, 320-204 (with 14 ties).

Then, a variety of events happened:

1) McCarama (The Republican Convention): Despite some initial disorganization, the Republicans did a great job of making their case.

2) Palinmania: The day after the Democratic convention – perfectly timed to increase McCain’s media coverage while decreasing Obama’s – McCain announced the choice of Alaska governor Sarah Palin as VP candidate. Given her lack of experience, it was an incredibly risky choice, but it has paid off greatly. Palin appeals to women, has the frontierswoman spirit that connects with America’s frontier culture, and has all the positions to energize the Republican base.

3) War Hero > Community Organizer: One topic the Republicans seized on in their convention is to push their candidate’s record as a war hero while simultaneously denigrating Obama’s record as a community organizer. One perfect jab by Palin – “I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities” – made the profession of Martin Luther King, Jr. into a seeming waste of time for seeming effete liberals.

4) Obama’s “Still” ad says McCain can’t use a computer: At the same time that McCain was playing strategy brilliantly, Obama made his first blunder of the campaign, running an ad about McCain’s being in Washington since 1982, including the fact that McCain can’t use a computer or send E-mail.  The fact that McCain can’t use a computer is important to young, tech-savvy voters – a demographic that Obama has solid leads in. The voters Obama really needs – working-class white voters – will either not care, or will be turned off by what they see as patronizing.

This is what the electoral vote polls looked like last week, September 16th (same color scheme):

Electoral vote polls on September 16th

McCain had built a slight lead, 257-247 (with 34 ties).

Then, the nation began to have major economic troubles, with Lehman Brothers collapsing, Merrill Lynch being bought, and AIG being restructured. The struggling economy gave momentum back to Obama. Here is the electoral vote poll map today:

Electoral vote polls today (Sept 23)

Obama has retaken the lead, 282-236 (with 20 ties). The economy is the signature issue of the week, and economic struggles are clearly benefiting Obama. McCain’s statement that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong” and the news that the FBI is investigating potential fraud at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and AIG will likely continue to benefit Obama.

The thing that is most significant about this is that it took McCain two months and millions of dollars to chip away at Obama’s lead and end up on top. A week later, after the economic turmoil, Obama was back on top, without really having to do anything. This fact bodes very well for Obama’s chances, particularly since he still has a major lead in fundraising.

The polls could switch again, though. This Friday’s foreign policy debate will give McCain the opportunity to reassert his strength in the election. Will he be able to assert it?

Obama vs. Blair

The first election I ever paid close attention to was the 1997 British election. I have been reminded of this election frequently over this last year of political insanity, for both the similarities and the differences. Here’s why.

First of all, there is the face that Tony Blair was up against a long-ruling, belligerent and incredibly conservative Conservative Party. The Conservative Party as Margaret Thatcher had left it was a bit of a shambles after they group-stabbed her Caesar-style, and after that long dominance people were sick of the lot of them. Blair was young, well-spoken (read: the most brilliant speaker and debater of his generation), and promised people a different sort of Labour Party, a party that wasn’t all about unions and, um, the people, but instead was young and hip. New Labour. Sound familiar yet?

Here are some of the concerns and differences I draw from that parallel:

Fear and trembling argument 1 – Look at what happened with Tony. If elected, will Obama suddenly become a regular politician with a messianic conviction, another one who thinks he doesn’t need anybody’s consent? I hope not. In fairness, at least Blair did his Messiah thing legally, and there is much to be said for that.

Fear and trembling argument 2 – Blair did not actually fix the National Health Service in the UK. Maybe it was not within his power, but if it wasn’t in his, then whose? One might plead with the possible future president: please do your research before you get entangled
with healthcare. It has thwarted wilier men than yourself.

Here’s the rub – the US is not the UK, not by a long stretch. In 1997, the Conservatives were voted out by a landslide. They were no more unpopular than the current US regime, and frankly, I would say the John Major’s failings were fewer than Bush’s. Why are we not seeing those effects in the US? Part of it, I think, is the fact that the Brits vote for parties, not people, but even that doesn’t cover it. It is hard to imagine the lacklustre Major beating Blair; but who knows; it probably helped Labour all the same.

Another possible factor is the American anti-intellectual stance – American voters don’t seem to fond of smart guys, or of good speakers. Qualities that would stand Obama in good stead in the UK seem to undermine him in America. It’s nothing new.

McCarama Day 4 – Vexations of the Day

UPDATE: There is now a “skip signup” button on the Obama page. W00t!

This was going to be an angry rant about Palin, really it was. And I will get to that yet. I have just encountered a more vexing, albeit less important issue. More vexing because it comes from “my” side of things – I refer of course to Barack Obama’s campaign website.

All campaign sites are a little annoying. I acknowledge this glad. It is always hard to find information and you get swamped with video and requests for money. This much I grant. Since the last time I visited BarackObama.com, however, the frontpage of the site has been changed
to force the visitor to give an email and zip code.

Barry, my friend, you are the great white hope. I say this without irony. We all hope you win, or at least, I do. I have some misgivings, but hey, you’re a politician. You have some good (political) points. You are great in debates. You are attractive. Yet your site makes me feel like I am being forced into a blind date with some creepy guy with a mullet by a pushy maiden aunt. It is not necessary Barry. I will give you my email if I choose. Put away the rohypnol already.

Well, I hear you ask, surely you, with your multifarious talents and creative genius, surely you can give a fraudulent email address? I can, and of course, my friends, I do. The problem is not this. I can claim not to have mobile phone number to give, or give my maiden
aunt’s number. It is entirely beside the point. The point is that forcing the delicate voter to part with personal information will instill a sense of hostility and a reluctance to enter you sanctuary
“powered by hope”, Barry.

Alas, Barry. You even force me to be facetious.

Sarah Palin now. She made me very angry this morning when I watched excerpts of her speech. From what I can tell, she did a decent job delivering her speech. Not as good a Huckabee, but then I am inclined to think that Huckabee’s excellent speaking and sense of humour don’t
always stand him in good stead – a little too chummy, a little too good. Anyway, she’s a good enough speaker. Her speech, however, was infuriating. Not because it knocked Obama, or pleaded for lower taxes. What else would anyone expect? Even my poor liberal soul can handle
that.

I had hopes that when the Republicans chose a moderate for their candidate, that that meant that there were fundamental things we could agree on – like climate change. Not so – “What does he [Obama] actually seek to accomplish, after he’s done turning back the waters and healing the planet? The answer is to make government bigger… take more of your money… give you more orders from Washington… and to reduce the strength of America in a dangerous world.”
Apparently, it is still possible to think that it is more important to shrink government than to prevent suffering and destruction on a massive scale. And for a moment you think – she must know. Surely she must?
“Our opponents say, again and again, that drilling will not solve all of America’s energy problems – as if we all didn’t know that already. But the fact that drilling won’t solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all.”
Exactly. So what are you going to do?
“Starting in January, in a McCain-Palin administration, we’re going to lay more pipelines… build more nuclear plants… create jobs with clean coal… and move forward on solar, wind, geothermal, and other alternative sources.”
I take it she also means to “drill, drill, drill”. Because otherwise, how is this point different from anything the democrats say? Which is, essentially, “let’s explore all our options, and build alternatives, but let’s not jeopardize our land and our tourism with reckless drilling, and let’s cut carbon”? Where does she mention the environmental impact of nuclear and coal energy, and of course, oil?
Or is that some liberal fabrication?

I’m done. If the republicans can’t see a way out of the energy and climate crisis without making things worse, they don’t deserve to even be out there. Any party that loves its illusions and denial more than those it puts at risk because of them does not deserve to be in the White House.

McCarama Day 2 – Joe Lieberman is not a Democrat!!!!!!!1!!!!

The big news on Tuesday night of the Republican Convention was Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT)’s speech (both video and transcript available). I just did a web browser find on Lieberman’s speech for the word “Democrat.” The final count: 15. You could have played a drinking game on the convention floor – take a shot every time Lieberman says the word Democrat – and not made it home.

Joe Lieberman is not a Democrat! He lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in 2006, and was able to win the general election as an Independent. I respect Lieberman’s ability to win the election as an Independent – we need more Independents in this age of partisan politics. But for him to say that he is a Democrat is a big, obvious, bald-faced lie.

Joe Lieberman is not a Democrat!

Ignoring that big, obvious, bald-faced lie for a moment, it was a great speech. It was exactly what McCain needed to bring out his message to Independent and Democratic voters. His key statement, in answer to his question about why he was addressing the Republican convention instead of the Democratic convention, was “The answer is simple. I’m here to support John McCain because country matters more than party.”

“Country First” and its corollary, “country matters more than party,” are the McPalin campaign’s answer to Obama’s “Yes we Can!” slogan. “Country First” is a powerful message in patriotic America – I’m not sure that even the McCain campaign has realized what a powerful message it can be. Lieberman’s speech was a good testbed for the message. Tomorrow, September 4th, polls are coming out in the swingstates*of Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa. We’ll see if this message is resonating in the polls.

What fascinated me about Lieberman’s speech was the varying levels of applause it generated from the crowd.

Almost no applause at all: “If John McCain was just another go-along partisan politician, he never would have led the fight to fix our broken immigration system or to do something about global warming….But he did.”

Wild cheering: “As a matter of fact, if John McCain is just another partisan Republican, then I’m Michael Moore’s favorite Democrat. And I’m not.”

It’s normal for a convention to rally the party’s base, and that’s what we’re seeing with the applause. But the convention-goers should remember that there are millions of undecided voters watching on TV outside the hall, and they can hear the applause just as well as they can hear the speeches. There’s no way to tell how much effect that has on the polls, but surely it must have some effect.

Tonight’s big speech was by VP nominee Sarah Palin, whom Republican blogs have already anointed as a rock star, apparently without the tiniest hint of irony. More on that speech tomorrow, after I see a transcript.

*Swingstates is hereby declared to be just one word.

McCarama Day 1 – ch-ch-ch-changes

McCarama* is entering its first full day. I’ll have to see transcripts and videos of the speeches before I comment fully, but what strikes me about Day 1 is the chameleon-like nature of the party. One minute, they had Fred Thompson talking about how what we need is more tax cuts and war spending, deficits be damned, and we need to protect unborn babies also. The next minute, they had Democrat Joe Lieberman talking about how McCain has the courage to do something about global warming. Did the Democrats do the same jumping from pleasing the base to reaching out to independents, and I missed it? Or are the Republicans really that quick-changing?

Also, the RNC has still not posted a schedule with times on its website. This entire convention seems disorganized.

*Not as good a name as “Obamarama”