With the first presidential debate coming this Friday night at 9 PM Eastern time, the 2008 election is entering the home stretch. Voters Broadcasting will be covering the debate live, with a video preview at 8:45 PM ET followed by real-time Twitter coverage. On Friday, we’ll preview what to expect in the debate.
The topic of the debate is foreign policy and national security. With that as the topic, John McCain will likely gain one or two states in the electoral vote just by showing up. If that happens, it will continue the last two months of seesawing in the electoral vote polling. (We’re using the electoral vote polling because, as we learned in 2000, only the electoral vote matters in choosing the president.)
This was what the electoral vote polling looked like on July 16th:
Electoral vote poll on July 16th
(A note on the color scheme: I hate the red = Republican / blue = Democrat colors for a variety of reasons that I’ll blog about soon. Orange means McCain and green means Obama. Darker shades mean stronger votes for the given candidate.)
Obama had a solid lead, 320-204 (with 14 ties).
Then, a variety of events happened:
1) McCarama (The Republican Convention): Despite some initial disorganization, the Republicans did a great job of making their case.
2) Palinmania: The day after the Democratic convention – perfectly timed to increase McCain’s media coverage while decreasing Obama’s – McCain announced the choice of Alaska governor Sarah Palin as VP candidate. Given her lack of experience, it was an incredibly risky choice, but it has paid off greatly. Palin appeals to women, has the frontierswoman spirit that connects with America’s frontier culture, and has all the positions to energize the Republican base.
3) War Hero > Community Organizer: One topic the Republicans seized on in their convention is to push their candidate’s record as a war hero while simultaneously denigrating Obama’s record as a community organizer. One perfect jab by Palin – “I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities” – made the profession of Martin Luther King, Jr. into a seeming waste of time for seeming effete liberals.
4) Obama’s “Still” ad says McCain can’t use a computer: At the same time that McCain was playing strategy brilliantly, Obama made his first blunder of the campaign, running an ad about McCain’s being in Washington since 1982, including the fact that McCain can’t use a computer or send E-mail. The fact that McCain can’t use a computer is important to young, tech-savvy voters – a demographic that Obama has solid leads in. The voters Obama really needs – working-class white voters – will either not care, or will be turned off by what they see as patronizing.
This is what the electoral vote polls looked like last week, September 16th (same color scheme):
Electoral vote polls on September 16th
McCain had built a slight lead, 257-247 (with 34 ties).
Then, the nation began to have major economic troubles, with Lehman Brothers collapsing, Merrill Lynch being bought, and AIG being restructured. The struggling economy gave momentum back to Obama. Here is the electoral vote poll map today:
Electoral vote polls today (Sept 23)
Obama has retaken the lead, 282-236 (with 20 ties). The economy is the signature issue of the week, and economic struggles are clearly benefiting Obama. McCain’s statement that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong” and the news that the FBI is investigating potential fraud at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and AIG will likely continue to benefit Obama.
The thing that is most significant about this is that it took McCain two months and millions of dollars to chip away at Obama’s lead and end up on top. A week later, after the economic turmoil, Obama was back on top, without really having to do anything. This fact bodes very well for Obama’s chances, particularly since he still has a major lead in fundraising.
The polls could switch again, though. This Friday’s foreign policy debate will give McCain the opportunity to reassert his strength in the election. Will he be able to assert it?
